‘Slow or No Growth’
Expected in 2013
FAA’s aerospace forecast for 2013-2033 emphasizes that,
while this year the industry will experience “slow or no growth,”
expansion should resume steadily over the next five years.
“Fundamentally, demand for aviation is driven
by economic activity,” the agency said. “As the
economy returns to growth, so will aviation.”
Total U.S. mainline air carrier and regional
enplanements are projected to increase from 736.7
million in 2012 to 1. 15 billion in 2033, an average
annual rate of 2. 1 percent. Of that total, domestic
enplanements are projected to remain steady in
2013 and then grow an average of 1. 9 percent per
year during the remaining 20-year forecast period.
International enplanements are forecast to increase
0.7 percent in 2013 and then grow an average of
4. 1 percent per year for the rest of the forecast
period, the agency said.
FAA closely follows the trends occurring at the
“Core 30” airports, which represent the top 30 air-
ports in the country in terms of passenger activity
— except Memphis, which is a major freight hub —
and account for about 70 percent of commercial pas-
sengers. Commercial activity at the Core 30 airports
peaked in 2005, but subsequent industry restructur-
ing has resulted in a drop in combined commercial
activity at these airports since then, the agency said.
In 2012, commercial activity at the Core 30 airports
fell by 1. 1 percent from the previous year and was
11. 2 percent below 2005 activity levels.